Extracting Forward-Looking Information from Security Prices: A New Approach
The Accounting Review, 2008

This paper by Professors Prasad Naik, Chih-Ling Tsai and co-author Dan Weiss from Tel Aviv University proposes a new index to extract forward-looking information from security prices and infer market participants’ expectations of future earnings. The index, called market-adapted earnings (MAE), utilizes stock returns and fundamental accounting signals to estimate market expectations of future earnings at the firm level. MAE outperforms time-series models (e.g., random-walk) in predicting future earnings. Results demonstrate the usefulness of MAE for firms that have no analyst following.