Research

Forecasting Crashes: Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices
Journal of Financial Economics, 2001

This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. Associate Professor Joseph Chen and co-authors Harrison G. Hong from Princeton and Jeremy C. Stein from Harvard develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks.

Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced: 1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months; and 2) positive returns over the prior thirty-six months. The first finding is consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (1999), which predicts that negative asymmetries are more likely to occur when there are large differences of opinion among investors. The latter finding fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson’s (1982) rendition of stock-price bubbles.

Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.

This paper won Chen and his co-authors 2nd Place in the 2001 Journal of Financial Economics Fama-DFA Prize for Best Paper in Capital Markets and Asset Pricing.

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UC Davis Graduate School of Management partners with Lawrence Livermore and Sandia National Labs to drive technologies from lab to market

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(Davis, Calif.) – With a joint goal of speeding the transfer of new technologies from the laboratory to the commercial marketplace, the UC Davis Graduate School of Management, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories have announced a new partnership for researchers to develop their entrepreneurial skills.

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Vickie Sherman MBA 13 Finds Her Passion, Her Career—and Herself

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My career path has been a climb across a jungle gym rather than a tangent up a corporate ladder. As a child, I used to thumb through the three-inch JCPenney catalogue, picking out the professional women who I would grow to be. I wanted to rule the world from a corner office in a suit and heels. I wanted to shed my humble origins and become Corporate Barbie.

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MBA Student Consultants Make an IMPACT
Projects Put Business Needs Front and Center

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Agilent Technologies’ Electronic Measurement Group is a $3.6 billion business that over the past decade has seen a dramatic shift in its customer base from U.S., and Western European customers to predominantly Asia-based customers. Today, the majority of the division’s revenues are generated outside of the U.S., with an increasing concentration in China.

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UC Davis Part-Time MBA in Top 8%, Full-Time MBA in Top 9%
U.S. News & World Report’s latest rankings: This marks the 19th consecutive year our MBA program has been ranked among the best in the nation.

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(Davis, CA) — The UC Davis Graduate School of Management’s full-time MBA program has been ranked among the top six percent of AACSB International-accredited programs nationwide, according to U.S. News & World Report’s latest graduate business school rankings released today.