Research

Stock Prices and Differences of Opinion: Empirical Evidence that Prices Reflect Optimism

In this paper, Assistant Professor Anna Scherbina provides empirical support for Miller’s 1977 hypothesis that a stock price will reflect the optimistic view whenever there is disagreement about its value. Using dispersion in analyst earnings forecasts as a proxy for disagreement, she finds that high-dispersion stocks earn lower returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is more pronounced for small-cap and growth stocks, and the subnormal returns are linked to the resolution of uncertainty.

Scherbina also documents that consensus earnings forecasts are more optimistic the higher the dispersion in underlying estimates, which is consistent with a view that the more pessimistic analysts choose not to issue forecasts.

Commands

Twitter Feed

Loading tweets...

Spotlight Story

Andrew Barkett Finds Innovative Ways to Fuel Entrepreneurship
Named First-ever Chief Technology Officer for Republican National Committee

Image of Andrew Barkett Finds Innovative Ways to Fuel Entrepreneurship

UPDATE: Andrew Barkett is leaving his post as senior engineer at Facebook to bring his decade of experience in Silicon Valley to become the first-ever chief technology officer for the Republican National Committee.The June 4 announcement has stirred a whirlwind of media coverage, including the Huffington Post and Washington Post.Bark

Spotlight Story

MBA Student Consultants Make an IMPACT
Projects Put Business Needs Front and Center

Image of MBA Student Consultants Make an IMPACT

Agilent Technologies’ Electronic Measurement Group is a $3.6 billion business that over the past decade has seen a dramatic shift in its customer base from U.S., and Western European customers to predominantly Asia-based customers. Today, the majority of the division’s revenues are generated outside of the U.S., with an increasing concentration in China.

Spotlight Story

UC Davis Part-Time MBA in Top 8%, Full-Time MBA in Top 9%
U.S. News & World Report’s latest rankings: This marks the 19th consecutive year our MBA program has been ranked among the best in the nation.

Image of  UC Davis Part-Time MBA in Top 8%, Full-Time MBA in Top 9%

(Davis, CA) — The UC Davis Graduate School of Management’s full-time MBA program has been ranked among the top six percent of AACSB International-accredited programs nationwide, according to U.S. News & World Report’s latest graduate business school rankings released today.

Spotlight Story

Mark Otero MBA 07 Builds Sacramento’s Coolest Company
The secret of social gaming mogul Mark Otero’s success is taking things to the extreme

Image of Mark Otero MBA 07 Builds Sacramento’s Coolest Company

The secret of Midtown Sacramento’s Facebook gaming mogul Mark Otero’s success is taking things to the extreme.