Suppressed Negative Information and Future Underperformance
Review of Finance, 2008
In this paper, Assistant Professor Anna Scherbina presents evidence of inefficient information processing in equity markets by documenting that negative information withheld by securities analysts is incorporated in stock prices with a significant delay.
Scherbina estimates the extent of the withheld negative information based on the proportion of analysts who stop revising their annual earnings forecasts. This measure predicts negative earnings surprises and negative price reaction around earnings announcements. It could also be used to generate profitable trading strategies. The study shows that institutions tend to sell their stock holdings as my measure of unreported negative news increases, thus ameliorating the mispricing.